Welfare Reform: Effects of a decade of Change

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During the 1990s United States undertook the greatest social policy reform since the Social Security Act of 1935. In Welfare Reform: Effects of a Decade of Change, Jeffrey Grogger and Lynn Karoly assemble evidence from numerous studies, including nearly three dozen social experiments, to assess how welfare reform has affected behavior. To broaden our understanding of this wide-ranging policy reform, the authors evaluate the evidence in relation to an economic model of behavior. The evidence they collect reveals the trade-offs that policymakers face in achieving the conflicting goals of promoting work, reducing dependency, and alleviating need among the poor. Finally, the authors identify numerous areas where important gaps remain in our understanding of the effects of welfare reform. The book will be a crucial resource for policy economists, social policy specialists, other professionals concerned with welfare policy, and students.

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Jeffrey Grogger is the Irving Harris Professor in Urban Policy at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago. Lynn A. Karoly is Senior Economist, RAND Corporation. Table of Contents Chapter One : Introduction Our Approach Organization of the Book Chapter Two : Background Brief History of Federal Welfare Policy Policy and Program Changes during the 1990s Welfare-Related Outcomes in the 1990s Chapter Three : An Economic Model AFDC and the Standard Economic Model Financial Work Incentives Requirements for Work or Related Activities Time Limits Summarizing the Predictions Chapter Four : Methodological Issues Methods of Causal Inference in Studies of Welfare Reform Measuring the Policy Environment Data Sources for Welfare Outcomes Summary of Studies Included in the Analysis Chapter Five : Welfare Use and Welfare Payments Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary Chapter Six : Employment, Labor Supply, and Earnings Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary Chapter Seven : Income and Poverty Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Estimates of the Effect of the Economy Summary Chapter Eight : Family Structure Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Marriage Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Marriage Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms on Childbearing Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle on Childbearing Summary Chapter Nine : Child Outcomes Theoretical Framework and Methodological Issues Experimental Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Observational Estimates of the Effects of Specific Reforms Estimates of the Effects of Reform as a Bundle Summary Chapter Ten : Theory, Evidence, and Policy Trade-offs Summarizing the Empirical Evidence Welfare, Labor Market Behavior, and Income Marriage, Childbearing, and Child Outcomes Welfare Reform as a Bundle What We Don’t Know about Welfare Reform Appendix A. Sources for Experimental Study Results Appendix B. Methodology for Summary Figures in Chapter Notes References Index